A Dire Intelligence Briefing For Obama

New president faces increased risk of conflict, intel chief says

From Pam Benson

CNN National Security Producer

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The global economy is tanking, U.S. forces remain tied up in Iraq, Afghanistan is on a downward spiral -- one might wonder why anyone would want to be U.S. president during these trying times.

Economic and population growth will strain resources, says National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell.

Recently, the nation's chief intelligence officer weighed in, painting an even more somber picture of a far more complicated world.

National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell looked beyond the immediate future, focusing on what his analysts are telling him about the challenges the world community is likely to face by 2025. It isn't pretty.

Speaking to an annual conference of intelligence officials and contractors, McConnell said demographics, competition for natural resources and climate change will increase the potential for conflict.

President-elect Barack Obama may get a glimpse of some of those challenges on Thursday. McConnell is expected to lead Obama's first top-secret intelligence briefing, according to U.S. officials familiar with the process.

A team of intelligence briefers has been named and is ready to discuss with Obama the Presidential Daily Brief, similar to the one provided to President Bush, says a message from CIA Director Michael Hayden to CIA employees obtained by CNN.

According to McConnell's outlook, economic and population growth will strain resources. "Demand is projected to outstrip the easily available supplies over the next decade," he said at the annual conference.

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The intelligence community's forecast indicates oil and gas supplies will continue to dwindle and production will be concentrated in unstable areas, he said. And there appears to be no relief at hand.

McConnell said studies have shown that new energy technologies -- such as biofuels, clean coal and hydrogen -- generally take 25 years to become commercially viable and widespread.

The lack of access to safe, reliable water will reach unprecedented levels over the next 20 years, he said, and 1.4 billion people in 36 countries are likely to face water shortages that will have a substantial impact on food production.

"Climate change is expected to exacerbate those resource scarcities," he said.

McConnell spoke of the unprecedented transfer of global wealth from West to East. By 2025, China is projected to be the second-largest economy and on its way to becoming the largest. India will grow to be the second- or third-largest economy.

All of this adds up to an unstable future. "Given the confluence of factors from a new global international system, increasing tension over natural resources, weapons proliferation ... we predict an increased likelihood for conflict," McConnell concluded.

Among the problems that aren't going away is terrorism -- an issue that did not get as much play as it initially appeared it would during the presidential campaign. McConnell said the descendants of long-established terrorist groups "will inherit organizational structures, the command and control processes and the training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks."

He said he is particularly concerned that a terrorist group will acquire and use biological agents to create casualties greater than the September 11, 2001, attacks.

In addition, he warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would "sow the seeds of instability and potential conflict" in that region on a scale that could affect the entire world.

Although the risk of a nuclear attack is "very low" over the next 20 to 30 years, McConnell said, "That possibility is grayer in the future than it is today. So what does this mean for the new president?

"After the new president-elect's excitement subsides after winning the election, it is going to be dampened somewhat when he begins to focus on the realities of the myriad of changes and challenges we are going to face in the future," McConnell said.

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Mia Kirshner's New Book About Refugees

This excellent interview with Mia Kirshner about her important new book, I Live Here, which focuses on refugees, is from the Miami Sun-Post and is written by my old Miami pal, John Hood.

Please check out John's own blog, The View From Here Now.

Refugee Stories

Mia Kirshner’s I Live Here Gives Voice to the Gone

By John Hood

The world can be an unfriendly place: famine, war, oppression, disease, crime. Other people can conspire to make it unfriendlier still. No one knows this better than the refugee, those who’ve been displaced from their homes, their country, and often their very lives, as a result of all the globe’s ugliness.

Not every refugee achieves their status through geography, of course. In fact, some are locked up and locked out right at home, forced to slave for wages never paid, and made to endure conditions beyond in the most vivid imagination.

But whether they live in a camp or a barrio, the one thing that unites every refugee is their silence, for these are the people who not only have no say; they have no voice. 

Thankfully there are more fortunate folks among us who are compelled to give the refugee the voice they’ve been denied, folks like the Canadian-born alt-starlet Mia Kirshner, who with a little help of friends like Adbusters’ Paul Shoebridge and Michael Simons, award-winning non-fictionist James MacKinnon, graphic novelist Joe Sacco and award-winning writer Chris Abani, has just published a remarkable assemblage of refugee stories entitled I Live Here (Pantheon, $29.95).

Kirshner, of course, is the crazy bad girl in Showtime’s hit series The ‘L’ Word (among other endeavors), which means she’s got a voice big enough to be both reckoned with and listened to. Oh, Mia’s not in any way preachy, she’s just determined to do whatever it takes to make this world a better place to live in for those whose lives are lived in the margins.

To that end Kirshner visited refugee camps in Malawi, Ingushetia and Burma, where AIDS, oppression and war have forced untold thousands to flee, in addition to the barrios of Juarez, Mexico, where legions of youngmaquiladora-employed women have been disappearing without a trace. I Live Here, a composite of four notebooks designed to be taught, read, spoken of and remembered, not only chronicles the lives she encountered, but it gives them each a voice.

I had the great, good pleasure of interviewing the delightful and committed actress during this year’s Miami International Book Fair — here’s some of our conversation:

First the obvious: Why is the book titled I Live Here?

My partner on the book Mike Simons came up with that title and the scratched out ‘here’ on the cover, and I think it’s because all of these stories are about people who don’t have homes but they still exist. Survival is their existence.

How’d Adbusters get involved?

I was a huge fan of their work, and after Joe Sacco said ‘Yes’ to the project I wrote them a letter and they said ‘Yes’ too. 

So you didn’t know them beforehand?

I didn’t know anybody. Basically I did almost a year of research, then I put together a really crude mock book of what I wanted it to look like and what I wanted the content to be, and I wrote a passionate letter to Joe…

That you still wish you had a copy of?

Ugh, fuck, yeah, you shouldn’t…

I’m sorry, I shouldn’t have brought it up. But I read somewhere that you wished you still had a copy of that letter because it was the catalyst for everything.

It was because he said ‘Yes,’ and he volunteered his time, and he sort of set the bar for the other artists.

And you thought it would take seven months, a year tops…

I thought it would take a year… Oh man, you’ve really been reading up on this.

What about Chris Abani, the Nigerian writer, how’d he get involved?

Do you know him?

Well, I know his work. Akashic has published a couple of his novellas.

Well, that was actually Amnesty International who introduced me [to Chris] and we formed a really beautiful friendship.

He’s a cool cat, right?

He’s wonderful. He wrote the curriculum for the creative writing program. And Chris is the one who really came through after Pantheon said I had to write for the book.

But what would you have been otherwise — the coordinator?

It was more than that. Because I went and I collected the material, and I was shaping the stories, and every page Mike, Paul and I designed together. They did the actual handwork.

Now, though, at least 50 percent of the book is your writing, right?

Yes, now, but back then I was really bummed out.

Really?

Yeah, and I get it. I mean, it’s their money, right? But I asked why they wanted me to do this. I wasn’t going to talk about my day job, because it’s not about that. One had nothing to do with the other. So Chris just walked me through the process. He said ‘write as if you’re writing a letter’ and I guess I just made a decision that since I’d asked people to write about such personal things, I would too.

You have to admit, though, that had you not had this ‘day job’ it would’ve been a lot more difficult to get the book published.

I know.

I read somewhere that there were four more books planned and you were thinking about Iran and Colombia and Cuba.

And Pakistan.

Are you just naturally drawn to places that are almost off the map?

I think so. I think I’ve always sort of gravitated towards the weirdoes and the outsiders and the people who sort of didn’t have the money and didn’t have the luck, so I think it’s a natural progression for me to want to do stories that are hidden. Does that make sense?

It makes perfect sense. But aren’t there stories right here that are equally compelling?

Sure there are, and I [also] want to do a domestic book. There are so many people living in Canada and the U.S. who don’t speak the language and don’t have jobs and are living in packed apartments and are totally isolated. And I’m interested in their stories as well. 

Meantime we have the striking design, the foundation, a YouTube channel and you’re on a tour of support. Why so much effort?

I worked for seven years on this and I put my saving into this, so I want the book to sell. And because I think its heart is pure.

For further information about the efforts and intentions behind I Live Here, visit i-live-here.com.

Comments? E-mail lee@miamisunpost.com.

All contents copyright © 2008 Caxton Newspapers, Inc.

Obama Brings Biden Birthday Cupcakes

On a lighter note...also from CNN.com:

Obama brings Biden birthday cupcakes

Posted: 06:25 PM ET

From CNN Correspondent Jessica Yellin

Barack Obama gives Joe Biden cupcakes the day before the Vice President-elect’s 66th birthday.

CHICAGO (CNN) – The day before Vice President-elect Joe Biden turns 66, President-elect Barack Obama presented his running mate with 12 candlelit cupcakes after their weekly lunch on Wednesday. He also gave Biden Chicago White Sox and Chicago Bears hats as well as a bucket of Garrett's popcorn as presents.

“You’re 12 years old!” Obama told Biden according to a Democratic source.

“Maybe in dog years!” Biden responded, laughing.

Obama and the staff then sang Biden ‘Happy Birthday.’

Rarely did Biden make a stop on the campaign trail and not mention his age. “I want you to know,” he would tell supporters, “there are only four members of the Senate who are senior to me. But the very important thing to know is there are still 39 older than me.”

Incisive Commentary On Potential Clinton Pick As Secretary Of State

This commentary from CNN.com about President-Elect Obama's potential pick of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is extremely well argued and worth reading.

Commentary: Clinton pick would be brilliant, but risky, move

By Steve Clemons
Special to CNN

Editor's Note: Steve Clemons is director of the American Strategy Program of the New America Foundation and publisher of the influential political blog, The Washington Note. He has served as executive vice president of the Economic Strategy Institute and as senior policy adviser on economic and international affairs to Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-New Mexico. The New America Foundation is a nonprofit institute that says it seeks "new thinkers and new ideas to address the next generation of challenges facing the United States."

Steve Clemons says appointing Hillary Clinton is a high-risk move that could pay off for Barack Obama.

(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton? Secretary of state? What is Barack Obama thinking?

This rock star president-elect may either be confused, deluded and self-destructive in sculpting a political and policy team that has a high probability of paralyzing itself in vicious internal skirmishes, or he may just be brilliant -- really, really brilliant.

Rahm Emanuel, considered by many to be the most thuggish (and effective) of the Democratic machine's partisans, is Obama's chief of staff.

Joe Lieberman, disloyal former Democrat who headlined the Republican National Convention calling GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin "strong. . .compelling...competent!" will keep his place in the Senate Democratic caucus -- as well as his powerful perch as Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security.

While not yet announced, indications increasingly point to Bush administration Defense Secretary Robert Gates being rewarded for out-Cheneying Cheney, having vital stewardship over America's complex Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan portfolios and thus staying on as Obama's Defense chief.

Now we may be on the verge of an announcement that Obama's "never give up, never surrender" rival to lead the Democratic Party, Hillary Rodham Clinton, may be nominated as Obama's secretary of state.

These early moves have been very difficult for the most liberal elements of the Democratic Party to digest as they feel they helped move the unlikely candidacy of Obama to triumph over the mainstream Clinton campaign. Now they are seeing their candidate "go Clinton" on them, at least in a number of his early political appointments.

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George W. Bush perhaps set the precedent of appointing his chief rival within the Republican party, Colin Powell, to secretary of state as a way to secure the shrewd general's skills and to politically neutralize him.

Obama may be doing the same with Hillary Clinton -- offering her a prize through which she may yet secure a distinctive place in history and taking from her the chance to challenge him again if the 2010 midterm elections go bad for Obama.

What would Obama be getting in Clinton if she is nominated?

Clinton thought Bush should boycott the opening ceremonies of the Chinese Olympic Games in order to highlight China's human rights abuses in Tibet and its lack of will to assist in pre-empting incremental genocide in Darfur.

This is tough talk when China's support is needed on nuclear nonproliferation, climate change, global economic stabilization and virtually every major issue facing the international system.

Clinton supported the congressional resolution that was the basis for the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq. She repeated this tendency to tilt toward the assertion of military force by voting in favor of the highly controversial resolution designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.

Clinton has advocated "coercive diplomacy" and believes carrots and sticks are needed in any sensible national security strategy. That in itself is not controversial, but she tended to focus more on the sticks than the carrots.

Interestingly, when Obama and Clinton were battling each other in a neck and neck race, Israeli public opinion polls showed huge support for Clinton, followed by John McCain, with Obama in a distant third. Why? Because many Israelis, rightly or wrongly, thought Clinton would be coercive with Iran and would hug Israel closely at the expense of other Middle East Arab interests -- and Obama would not.

The Clinton we have grown accustomed to over the last year is perceived as a spear-carrier for the Madeleine Albright school of values-driven liberal interventionism. Albright proponents argue that in contrast to the reckless efforts of neoconservatives to spread democracy and promote global justice at the end of a gun, Albright got regime change right in the Balkans.

Obama is the guy who wanted to meet the world's most thuggish leaders, who wanted strategic change, and who wanted to avoid the "wrong kind of experience" -- implying Clinton's team was riveted in the past and not ready for the future. Obama strategist David Axelrod went so far as to tie Clinton to some responsibility for Benazir Bhutto's death for not doing more to stop Bush's wars in the Middle East.

Despite all of these differences, hiring Clinton may be a masterstroke of genius that has all the markings of a high-risk, high-reward move with which this political tycoon Obama has grown comfortable.

By bringing her on, Obama finally gets the keys to the Clinton political franchise, adding it to the Daley, Daschle and Kennedy Democratic party franchises he has already acquired and integrated. Obama neutralizes a potential rival for the 2012 race.

In all honesty, Clinton probably calculated that this new star in the White House won't be handed a rebuke consequential enough in 2010 -- no matter his performance -- to animate a credible challenge against him in the next round of Democratic primaries. And Clinton has never acquiesced to the dreary reality of being a perpetual senator of New York -- just not good enough to burnish her place in the history books.

Add to this that despite their differences, Clinton is one of the hardest working and most intelligent policy wonks in the business. She understands microcredits and used to hang out in the mid-1980s in Arkansas with their advocate, 2007 Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus.

She crusaded and lost on a universal health care plan during Bill Clinton's first term -- and regrouped during her campaign, self-critically adjusting and re-drafting her approach to health care.

Clinton deploys ideas, tears them up when they don't work and relaunches them. She's tenaciously committed to results.

If Obama wants to change the strategic game on Iran, Israel-Palestine, Syria, Cuba, Russia and other challenges, he will need partners who are perceived as tough, smart, shrewd and even skeptical of the deals he wants to do. Clinton is all of these.

Clinton may be the bad cop to Obama's good cop. Because she is trusted by Pentagon-hugging national security conservatives, she may legitimize his desire to respond to this pivot point in American history with bold strokes rather than incremental ones.

Bush came into his job focused on making faith-based politics and tax cuts the hallmarks of his administration. He forfeited to Vice President Cheney and his team enormous latitude in defining Bush's national security agenda.

Obama seems like he has no intention of doing something similar. He intends to, in part, be his own secretary of state, focused on re-sculpting America's global social contract and working in partnership with a diverse team of hard-edged policy players like Clinton to make even his rivals do his direct bidding.

This could be a kind of proactive agenda-setting in foreign policy we haven't seen in decades. Obama does not want an ad hoc, reactive presidency -- and he wants to succeed.

Clinton has a lot of reasons to pull cooperatively with Obama and may want to help America achieve a new strategic direction and establish a new global equilibrium -- securing Obama's place in history, and her own.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Steve Clemons.

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Clinton To Accept Secretary Of State Offer

While the New York Times, CNN and other media outlets are reporting that Bill Clinton's global financial and foundation activities may pose conflict of interest blocks to the potential appointment of Hillary Clinton as President Obama's Secretary of State, Britain's The Guardian newspaper is reporting it as more of a done deal:

Clinton to accept offer of secretary of state job

• Ewen MacAskill in Washington
• guardian.co.uk, Tuesday November 18 2008 00.01 GMT
• The Guardian, Tuesday November 18 2008
• Article history

Barack Obama and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton prepare to board a plane. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty images

Hillary Clinton plans to accept the job of secretary of state offered by Barack Obama, who is reaching out to former rivals to build a broad coalition administration, the Guardian has learned.

Obama's advisers have begun looking into Bill Clinton's foundation, which distributes millions of dollars to Africa to help with development, to ensure there is no conflict of interest. But Democrats believe the vetting will be straightforward.

Clinton would be well placed to become the country's dominant voice in foreign affairs, replacing Condoleezza Rice. Since being elected senator for New York, she has specialised in foreign affairs and defence. Although she supported the war in Iraq, she and Obama basically agree on a withdrawal of American troops.

Clinton, who still harbours hopes of a future presidential run, had to weigh up whether she would be better placed by staying in the Senate, which offers a platform for life, or making the more uncertain career move to the state department.

As part of the coalition-building, Obama yesterday also reached out to his defeated Republican rival, John McCain, to discuss how they could work together to roll back some of the most controversial policies of the Bush years. Putting aside the bitter words thrown about with abandon by both sides during the election campaign, McCain flew to meet Obama at his headquarters in the Kluczynski Federal Building, in downtown Chicago.

Obama, speaking before the meeting, said: "We're going to have a good conversation about how we can work together to fix up the country." Asked by a reporter whether he would work with Obama, McCain, who favours a bipartisan approach to politics, replied: "Obviously".

Sources on both sides said Obama did not offer McCain a cabinet job, but focused on how the senator for Arizona could help to guide legislation that they both strongly favour through Congress.

Given Obama's status as president-in-waiting, the two met in a formal setting, a room decked out with a US flag, and were accompanied by senior advisers. Although the two clashed during the election campaign over tax policy and withdrawal from Iraq, they have more in common than they have differences. They both favour the closure of the Guantánamo Bay detention centre, an increase in US troops to Afghanistan, immigration reform, stem cell research and measures to tackle climate change, and oppose torture and the widespread use of wire-tapping.

After the meeting, they issued a joint statement saying: "At this defining moment in history, we believe that Americans of all parties want and need their leaders to come together and change the bad habits of Washington so that we can solve the common and urgent challenges of our time. We hope to work together in the days and months ahead on critical challenges like solving our financial crisis, creating a new energy economy and protecting our nation's security."

Although Democrats made gains in the Senate in the November 4 elections, they fell short of the 60 seats that would have allowed them to override Republican blocking tactics and will need Republican allies to get Obama's plans through. This was highlighted yesterday when the Democratic leadership in Congress announced that a broad economic stimulus package Obama sought was not likely to be passed because of Republican opposition.

Obama confirmed at the weekend that he would offer jobs to some Republicans. One of the names that crops up most often is Chuck Hagel, the former Republican senator who is a specialist in foreign affairs and a critic of the Iraq war.

Look To The Future

We have all worked and hoped so hard for this incredible change that has occurred.  The fact that President-Elect Obama is ushering in a truly new dawn for America and the world is a sea change after the past eight years of darkness, fear-mongering and division.  But we should not stop now.

We should look to Obama's energy, focus and commitment and take our cue from him and his beautiful family.  We should all play our part to ensure that America continues to change and to grow more tolerant, more open-minded and to give everyone truly equal opportunity in healthcare, education, work and throughout our lives.

We should work hard to make America the powerhouse of ideas, enthusiasm and application that it always has been.  And we should not for a moment believe that those who opposed Obama during this election will sit back and let it all be...we need to continue working diligently to keep Obama in the White House until 2016.  Believe in a brighter future!

A New Dawn

I believe that President Barack Obama will prove to be one of the greatest presidents the United States has known: transformational yet also measured and highly focused.

He has already made many millions of Americans (including me) proud.  I think he will meet the complex challenges of both the present and the future with grace, with wisdom, with his customary highly inclusive approach and with the truly inspirational quality that has made 2008 such an historic election year.

All love and good wishes to President Obama and his family.

Vote Hope VOTE OBAMA Vote For Our Future And Our Children's Future

This is one of the most exciting days I have ever experienced.

As someone who has believed for well over a year that Barack

Obama offers the most exceptional leadership qualities in my

lifetime, and that his election as US President would move the

United States and the world in a sea change away from the

policies of fear, division and darkness of the past eight years,

the time has finally come for hope and transformation.

I have just voted, my wife voted earlier this morning, and I

hope that everyone eligible across this nation votes - and that

the vast, vast majority of them vote for Obama and for a fully

renewed and empowered Democratic House and Senate.

We are at an extraordinary turning point in the world in many

ways, not least the global economic crisis and the challenges of

the global climate crisis,  but also the very different climate of

"opposites" and war-mongering that has characterized the

Bush administration, particularly in its response to the horrors

of 9/11 - which, if you remember, initially earned us the genuine

sympathy of the world, but which was turned into an excuse by

Bush and particularly Cheney to run roughshod over individual

freedoms and the Constitution.

Let the election of Barack Obama today usher in a new world,

not of pie-in-the-sky easy solutions, but of genuine, hard-thought-

through and hard-won transformation and evolution (and may

that word and all it represents remain a cornerstone of our

civilization; it can coexist with all kinds of spirituality).  Let us

move toward a more open and adaptable society that is not

afraid of the fact that, together, we are government.

We would not exist as a nation without the binding force of a

federal government, and to believe that Government is "them"

and that "we" or "us" are entirely separate from and absolved

of the responsibility that government entails, is childlike.

We are government.  We vote it in, we vote it out.  Without it,

we would have no civic or social fabric.  Its precise role in our

lives clearly evolves as we do, as evidenced most recently by

the dramatic actions of the Bush Administration-appointed

Federal Reserve and Treasury to rescue the world from the

excesses of the so-called "Free Market."

I believe the Free Market has its place; it was for the energy

and opportunity of America that I moved here from Britain

and became a US citizen.  But I also believe fundamentally

that the core of a healthy society is equal opportunity for all,

and in particular the provision of good education and healthcare

for everyone, just as I believe that government, be it federal,

state or local, should maintain the roads and protect citizens

from assault and even the risk of drowning at sea or freezing

on a remote mountaintop

In any event, let us see what tonight and tomorrow bring.  I

believe that they will deliver a landslide victory for Barack

Hussein Obama and also for a Democratic Congress.  I

believe that the nature of our times calls for such a clear

mandate.  I believe that Barack Obama will prove to be a

truly historic president, although like everyone he will make

mistakes but will learn from them and grow stronger as a

result.

I believe that Barack Obama offers a new dawn for America,

which may sound overblown, but never in my life have I

felt such hope and pride in listening to and watching a

political candidate.  He represents pretty much all the

values that I would like our society to embrace, and I hope

and believe that as we embrace them, we should embrace

him, too, as a beacon of the 21st Century.

Alexander Chow-Stuart

Obama Warns Against Complacency

This from Friday's Financial Times, which, by the way, has officially endorsed Obama for President:

Obama warns against complacency

By Edward Luce in Columbia, Missouri

Published: October 31 2008 19:33 | Last updated: October 31 2008 19:33

At the first mention of John McCain, the boisterous Missouri crowd starts booing. “Don’t boo,” Barack Obama shoots back: “Vote.” With three days still to go before election day, Mr Obama’s campaign estimates that more than 40 per cent of likely voters have already cast their ballots in swing states such as Florida and Nevada – another indicator, if any were needed, that Tuesday may turn into something of a formality.

“The die is being cast as we speak,” said David Plouffe, Mr Obama’s campaign manager. “We believe we are on a credible pathway to winning all of the battleground states.”

EDITOR’S CHOICE

Full coverage: US elections 2008 - Oct-31

Editorial Comment: Perilous transition - Oct-31

Jurek Martin: America’s staggering capacity for change - Oct-31

On the trail: Campaign diary - Oct-31

US elections: Campaign slideshow - Oct-31

Obama poised to gain most from early vote - Oct-31

But Mr Obama, for whom the prefix “preternaturally self-confident” is a step away from becoming a Microsoft Word insert, lets slip an anxiety that complacency may yet prove to be his undoing, even if Mr McCain’s campaign has long since ceased to pose much threat.

“Don’t think for a second that this election is ours,” Mr Obama tells a rally that has been drilled for 40 minutes before his arrival about the logistics of voting. “Don’t believe for a moment that power concedes anything. We’ve got to have every single one of you voting and grab three more to take along with you.”

Almost two years after Mr Obama launched his campaign in the “depths of winter from the steps of the state capitol building in Springfield, Illinois”, as he puts it, the first-term African-American senator has honed his campaign stump speech into a taut piece of oratory far removed from the dreamy passages with which he started out.

Gone are the high-soaring flights of poetry that inspired millions (upwards of 2m, according to estimates) of educated young people to volunteer for his campaign. Gone, too, is the underlying cadence of the revivalist preacher that electrified believers but left others, particularly Hillary Clinton’s loyal army of blue-collar supporters, feeling cold or overlooked.

Instead of dwelling on the imperative of restoring America’s positive role in the world, Mr Obama talks almost entirely about the economy. With the exception of a brief passage on the need to wind down the war in Iraq, foreign policy plays no part in his “closing argument”. In place of inspiration, there is wit.

“A few weeks ago John McCain said: ‘If we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.’ That’s why I spend all my time talking about the economy,” says Mr Obama.

In place of the preacher, there is a pugilist. “George W. Bush just keeps digging our economy into a deeper and deeper hole,” he says. “And now he’s trying to hand off that shovel to John McCain.”

And instead of Jimmy Carter, there is Ronald Reagan. It is not quite “morning in America”. But Mr McCain’s increasing tendency to focus on the dark clouds hovering over America’s horizon has allowed Mr Obama to corner the market for optimism: “The question I want to ask you is not: ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’ – we know the answer to that question,” says Mr Obama. “But, ‘will you be better off in four years time?’ ”

Bill Clinton, who for the first time joined Mr Obama on the stump in Florida this week, recommended that television viewers should mute the sound button and judge candidates by their body language. Mr Obama would come across as self-possessed, Mr McCain twitchy. The same conclusions might be drawn from the wildly diverging tactics of both campaigns in the closing stages of this surprisingly non-cliff-hanging contest.

While the McCain camp is indulging in mutual blame games – or what pundits call a “circular firing squad” – and constant tussles with Sarah Palin to prevent the vice-presidential nominee from going off-message, Mr Obama’s camp continues to spread its wings. Yesterday it launched advertisements in North Dakota, Georgia, and Arizona, Mr McCain’s home state.

It would still be a shock if Mr Obama won any of them – all three were seen as unshakeable Republican bastions just a few weeks ago. But with millions of dollars left in the bank and the most extensive ground operations ever built by a Democrat in the genuine swing states, Mr Obama could not resist poking Mr McCain in the eye.

“Do you know what John McCain stands for?” Mr Obama asks. “Have you seen his ads? He spends all his time talking about me . . . They have called me every name in the book. But it isn’t going to work. Not this time.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008